Why “wait and see” on Trump means ignore all reason.

“But we should have to wait and see what he does.”

There is optimism, there is desperation masking as hope…and then there is just naiveté.

Yes the GOP will get something passed.  Some of it I will actually like. But they will also do so many stupid, brainless, populist moves that the bad will outweigh the good.

 

But let’s look at some of the things that would have to occur for this not to become a clucsterfuck of epic proportions.

  1. The first is that the GOP would have to act like fiscal conservatives both in Congress and the White House.  They couldn’t do that when they were still nominally conservative under Bush and didn’t have the majority they do now.  Every pet project, every piece of pork, every idiotic scheme in every red district will get funded.  So that’s just to be expected.
  2. Now to prevent this you  could also trust on the rules of cloture in the Senate remaining in place and thus allowing the Democrats to have some veto against abuse.  I would like to believe they will remain in place—but this was a party elected not on the idea of limited government or constitutional limits, it was elected on the bullshit and anti-Constitutional idea of “the sole will of the people” and “against the establishment”.  Cloture rules are very much a tradition that they see as something of the establishment and I can all but promise you this little check on unmitigated power is going to be gone.  Even if the Senate doesn’t immediately push for it, the second anything Supreme Leader Trump gets stopped for cloture vote, he will take to airwaves and demand that this affront to “the will of the people” be abolished (that is assuming the Reichstag has not been conveniently been burned to the ground).
  3. Next you will need TPP to be passed in the lame duck session (I give this a 50/50 shot) and for Trump to not gut free trade after that.  Look I don’t care what tax plan he puts in (and his tax plan is really stupid as it’s all for show and has almost no pro-growth features) because if we go to trade wars with the whole world you could put in a the Ryan tax plan and all the benefits that come with it, and all those benefits that come with growth both at the personal and business level will be eliminated by the fact that everything will cost vastly more. Early projections have Trump’s trade policy costing everyone $2,200 but that’s only individuals…just wait for the long term costs as that add into the costs of businesses.  It will compound.  Oh, and the gig economy that is helping a lot of people stay afloat, I think you’re forgetting unions hate those things…and who was really chummy with the unions for the entire campaign?  That would be Trump.  So if you thought Obama protected unions and gave them too much government help, get ready for round two.
  4. Obamacare will need be overturned, and it will.  But, I have to ask when the man has said he loves Canada’s single payer system, has lied when he said it worked, and complains every day about how unfairly Bernie was treated…are you sure he’s not going to put in something worse?  And again, you can’t say that the Republicans will keep him in line, because they already supported him this far.  And this is one of those situations where it’s bad,—like heroin addiction is bad, but you don’t go cold turkey off that—and just killing Obamacare without putting anything in it’s place would be worse.  No time for transition, no way for those who had insurance before Obamacare, had insurance under this disaster of a law, but just killing it would leave without insurance to do anything.  This is the problem with bad legislation, this why we should try to avoid bad legislation at all costs—even when you try to fix it there are after effects that just going cold turkey won’t fix.  So we could easily end up in a situation worse than Obamacare if you do the stupid thing and immediately kill it.  That’s a situation that would lead to the Democrats taking both houses, putting forward single payer and Trump being all too happy to sign the Canadian system he and Bernie just love in place.  So honestly do you have any faith that he and his congressional allies will do this the right way or is the likelihood that they will create a bigger problem?
  5. He needs competent people, who will do the right thing and be allowed to do it, in every cabinet post.  Now there is a claim that the people in Trump’s cabinet will actually be in charge and he will pick competent people (unlike every other person he has ever appointed in the Trump organization).  He’s said he likes yes men.  Do you think that’s going to change?  So let’s say he appointed John Bolton to Secretary of State…what happens the first time Bolton disagrees with Trump on anything, as Bolton will have to do as we all know Trump is an idiot.  History suggests that Trump will demand his resignation that moment and go on twitter to tell everyone what a loser Bolton is.  So even if you want to tell me he’s got some good names up front (he doesn’t) they won’t last long with this idiot.  So how exactly are the cabinets going to run any more efficiently than any of the failing black holes that are the Trump businesses?  Please tell me what makes you think this man can manage anything?
  6. We will need to strengthen our ties to our allies.  Well, given that all our allies in the Pacific are counting on TPP to protect them from Chinese domination, his opposition to TPP means we will have no allies in the Pacific.  And given that Trump is Putin’s bitch that means all our allies in Eastern Europe are going to be under Russian influence again.  Or worse he’ll stand up to those nations which with his temperament means a massive military engagement we are probably not in a position to get involved in.  So to avoid this we would have to see him take a strong but balanced stand on free trade, human rights, and rule of law—you know all those things he mocks—at the beginning of his presidency, which we know he won’t.
  7. We would need to push back against our adversaries on the world stage.  But what about our enemies like Russia and ISIS.  Well Russia will be more powerful after all of this, and he talks a good game about killing ISIS  but (1) given that he shares ISIS’ love for power over principle, their view of women, their attitude toward law, religious tolerance, and free speech, and love of using twitter to spread hate and (2) his assertion that he knows more than his generals (I recall someone had a similar belief, they ended up invading Russia in the winter) I honestly don’t think ISIS has anything to fear from Trump.
  8. We would need to defend the Constitution from further encroachment.  Trump would have to not, as promised, try and strip the First Amendment by going after the Freedom of the Press, Freedom of Religion, and Freedom of Speech.  Careful if you argue he was just lying about those, you don’t get to argue his stance on anything else were true which means he’ll revert to being the liberal he’s been for the last 50 years—can’t see how that’ll be a problem.
  9. He would need no scandals to actually get things done.  He has a racketeering, fraud, and rape cases coming up.  And that’s just right now.  Prepare to see the Clintons look like saints in comparison to what is to come.
  10. We would need to settle the problems at the local levels of law enforcement to both protect both law enforcement officers and citizens.  Trump has promised to be more law and order, which suggests he will further militarize the police and further never give in on any claim against police.  Now BLM may be a bunch of idiots, but they’re right that civil forfeiture needs to stop, that cops need to all have body cameras, and that there needs to be more internal affairs reviews.  That’s in direct opposition to everything Trump has said.
  11. Trump has brought racists out from whatever hole they were hiding in, and they are already getting more verbose and violent.  It’s likely going to get worse.  Some may think that’s a preposterous claim, but racists, like Trump, are nothing but bullies and anyone who has been to a playground knows that a bully just needs to think someone, anyone, will have his back and he will try to attack those he thinks he can get away with attacking.  What you would need to see from Trump is his condemning such evil (something he has repeatedly refused to do) and vigorously prosecute such crimes when it comes into federal territory (I won’t be holding my breath).
  12. This country needs immigration reform.  When most of your illegal immigrants are now not from places from south of the border an expensive wall and more costly deportations is not exactly going to fix the system.  What we need is real immigration reform. Will we get it from Trump and his populist supporters? I doubt it.  Expect even more economic repercussions from that.

These are all things that either Trump or Clinton would have needed to deal with, but sadly Clinton was more likely to work with the conservatives to come up with something that would have likely been not great but workable for four years until we could have gotten a conservative in.  Now that won’t happen as there is no conservative party left.

Yeah could all these things happen?  Sure.  Pigs could fly too and lead could magically change to gold.  But the fact is that nothing in Trump’s record suggest that these things will happen, and nothing in GOP cowardly groveling to this fascist says they will be able to stand against him.

For the Trump years to be good two things have to be the case (1) his lifetime of populism liberalism and cronyism has to be a lie, and (2) his presidential run of fascist nationalism and populism has to be a lie.  If either is true we’re doomed on way or another.  And I find the idea that a conservative masquerading as a liberal masquerading as a fascist just a little too far-fetched.  No matter how this turns out it will be bad.  Maybe not apocalyptically bad, but things are going to be worse than they are now, and right now they’re not great.

So I don’t need to wait and see.  His previous actions and words tell me what will happen.  It is up to him to prove me wrong.  I have little doubt that I will be proven wrong.  It would be great if I was proven wrong…but I won’t be.

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